Household projections

Summary and dashboard

This page refers to household projections, principal projection, 2018-2043

Household numbers in the Lancashire-12 area are projected to grow from an estimated 515,825 in 2018, to 587,565 by 2043, an increase of 13.9% (+71,740 households). This is slightly lower than the England growth rate of 16.2%. 

Within the Lancashire-12 area, 5 areas are project to grow faster than the England average: Chorley (+12,101, 24.4%), Fylde (+9,253, 24.6%), Wyre (+8,734, 17.7%), Ribble Valley (+5,560, 21.4%) and Rossendale (+5,568, 18.3%). The slowest growing areas are West Lancashire (+2,492, 5.4%) and Preston (+4,636, 8%).

In the wider Lancashire-14 area, the two unitary authorities are both forecast growth rates significantly lower than the England average, Blackburn with Darwen (+3,595, 6.3%) and Blackpool (+2,703, 4.3%).

Average household size

By 2043, in the Lancashire-12 area, the average household size is predicted to reduce from 2.29 to 2.17 people. For the Lancashire-14 area, a decrease is also projected, from 2.30 to 2.19 people. In England, the average household size is estimated to fall from 2.37 to 2.24 people.

Households aged 65 and over

Nationally, the percentage of households aged 65 and over is estimated to rise from 28.7% of the total in 2018, to 36.4% in 2043. In the Lancashire-12 area, the percentage is estimated to increase from 31.5% (162,673 households) to 39.4% (231,759 households) by 2043. Fylde (49.1%), Wyre (50.2%) and Ribble Valley (45.5%) are projected to have some of the highest percentages of households aged 65 and over in the country by 2043. Preston is projected to have the lowest (29.3%).

Household composition

One person households in the Lancashire-12 area are projected to rise by 17.9% to 205,038 households, or 34.9% of all households, by 2043, slightly higher than the England projected average of 33%. Fylde (39.9%), Preston (38.7%), Hyndburn (37.2%), Burnley (37.7%) and Pendle (36.7%) are projected to have some of the largest percentages of one person households in England in 2043. Blackpool (41.2%), in the Lancashire-14 area, is projected to have the seventh highest percentage of one person households in England (out of 326 local authority areas).

Households with dependent children in the Lancashire-12 area are predicted to increase slightly, by 0.8% (1,047 households) to 135,306households, or 23% of all households, in 2043, lower than the projected England average of 24.7%. In the Lancashire-14 area, four areas are projected to have a percentage of households with depended children that is above the England average: Blackburn with Darwen (29.6%), Hyndburn (25.7%), Preston (25%) and Rossendale (25.1%). Households with dependent children in the Lancashire-12 area are predicted to form a smaller proportion of all households in 2043 (23%) compared with 2018 (26%), as would be expected from an ageing population.

 

The dashboard below contains data visualisations of the household projections. For help on using these dashboards, please look at our tips and hints (PDF, 454KB). 

You can make selections by clicking on the down arrow next to the selection boxes and checking the box; you can put the dashboard into full screen mode by clicking on the double headed arrow in the bottom right hand corner.

For help on understanding neighbourhood geographies, please look at our geographies page.

Please feel free to use any of the information in this dashboard, acknowledging Lancashire Insight when you do. 

Feedback on this dashboard would be welcomed to BusinessIntelligence.JSNA@lancashire.gov.uk.

Notes: Household projections for Lancashire and its constituent areas are less robust than those at the national level, particularly in areas with relatively small numbers of households. The projections are best viewed as estimates based on recent demographic and household formation trends. These could change in future years.

A household is defined as one person living alone or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room or sitting room or dining area. This includes sheltered accommodation units in an establishment where 50% or more have their own kitchens (irrespective of whether there are other communal facilities) and all people living in caravans on any type of site that is their usual residence; this will include anyone who has no other usual residence elsewhere in the UK.

The private household population is the total resident population minus the communal establishment population.

The age of household is based on the household reference person. This is the individual that represents the household for statistical purposes. The definitions of the household reference person (and the family reference person) can be found in the ONS glossary of terms used in Census publications. In some cases the household reference person may not be, and could be much younger than, the eldest person in that household.

Page updated September 2018, October 2018, December 2018, January 2019 and May 2021