Report: The Consultation on the Future of Thurnham Glasson Church of England (Voluntary Aided) Primary School

This report sets to provide a background to assist with the decision making process for the future of Thurnham Glasson Church of England (Voluntary Aided) Primary School. It will outline several influential factors to aid understanding of the identified need, with background information and data that has influenced the rationale that has led to this position. It will seek to;

• wider context

• rationale

• pupil numbers

• surplus places

• sustainability

• financial information

Thurnham Glasson Church of England (Voluntary Aided) Primary School is a small rural primary school within the Rural South Lancaster pupil planning area. The school currently has 7 pupils on roll against a capacity of 42 places, representing approximately 17% occupancy, and received no first preference applications for admission in September 2026.

There is significant surplus primary school capacity within the Rural South Lancaster planning area and neighbouring areas, with forecasts indicating that this position is expected to continue. Local demographic data also suggests a decline in the number of school-age children and reduced prospects for future growth.

The school was inspected in June 2023 and was graded Requires Improvement, having previously been Good in 2020 and 2010. This indicates a recent decline in overall effectiveness.

There is significant surplus primary school capacity within the Rural South Lancaster planning area and neighbouring areas, with forecasts indicating that this position is expected to continue. Local demographic data also suggests a decline in the number of school-age children and reduced prospects for future growth.

Pupil planning area numbers

The school has experienced declining numbers over recent years, with the most recent intake showing no first preferences. Forecasts indicate no immediate improvement in demand.

GP registration data indicates a decline in all three categories, projected births, down 29.9%, Nursery aged pupils down 3% and primary aged population within the PPA down 7.7%. This suggests that low demand is likely to continue in the medium term.

Spring 2026 forecast

Local housing growth expectations have reduced following the cancellation of Bailrigg Garden Village. Lancaster City Council is reviewing its Local Plan, targeting approximately 650 dwellings per year from 2028–2042, but Lancaster typically generates lower pupil yields than average.

The school has received sustained support to address educational performance concerns and continues to face challenges associated with operating at a very small scale, including leadership capacity, curriculum delivery and long-term sustainability. In addition, the school's financial position is forecast to deteriorate to a deficit of approximately £63,076 by the end of the 2026/27 financial year.

Option 1: Continue operating the school

To take no further action and allow the school to continue operating in its current operational structure. If the decision is taken not to close the school, a directed academy order will be issued by the department for education due to its current Ofsted grading.

Therefore, the school would convert to an academy. This option would enable the school to remain open but would not address the challenges associated with low pupil numbers, surplus places, educational sustainability and the school's forecast financial position.

Whilst academisation may provide additional support and governance arrangements, it would not in itself address the challenges arising from the school's very small size, declining demand and long-term financial viability.

Option 2: Consider closure

To consider whether the school should close through the statutory school closure process.

Consultation on this option would enable all stakeholders to provide their views before any decision is taken on whether to proceed to the statutory process. It would also allow appropriate planning to take place for pupils, families and staff should closure ultimately be approved.

Based on current and forecast pupil numbers, demographic decline, and recent Ofsted outcomes, Thurnham Glasson CE (VA) Primary School meets several criteria for being considered vulnerable:

• Extremely low pupil numbers and sustained surplus capacity

• No first preferences for the forthcoming intake

• Demographic decline—both under‑5 and primary‑aged populations falling

• Recent fall to Requires Improvement

• Limited housing growth expected to increase demand

The recommendation is to continue with the consultation to look at the two options, following the closure of the consultation the results will be reported back to Cabinet who will make the decision on whether to proceed with the process or allow the school to remain open.

On 1 October LCC cabinet gave its approval for the Consultation on the Future of the school. This starts with a consultation on whether the school shall remain open or start the process to potentially close the school.

Indicative time frame:

• Cabinet approval to consult - 1 October 2026

• Stage 1 Consultation - 9 October 2026 to 19 November 2026

• Report back on consultation for urgent Cabinet decision whether to publish statutory notice - 21st Jan 2027

• Stage 2 and 3 publication of statutory notice and representation period - 28 Jan 2027 Reg 15 published, representation period 28 Jan to 4 March 2027

• Stage 4 decision by Cabinet - 1st April 2027

• Stage 5 implementation - July 2027