District unemployment

Official model-based yearly unemployment estimates for local authorities within the Lancashire-14 area - October 2016 to September 2017

Important information

Official unemployment estimates for local authorities below the county level are provided via the model-based unemployment methodology developed by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The figures are yearly estimates, published each quarter for 12-month periods ending March, June, September and December each year.

The model-based unemployment estimates improve on the local authority unemployment estimates sourced from the Annual Population Survey (APS) by borrowing strength from the Claimant Count to produce an estimate that is more precise (ie the estimates have smaller statistical confidence intervals (margins of error)). The Claimant Count is not itself a measure of unemployment but is strongly correlated with unemployment, and, as it is an administrative count, is available without sampling error. The gain in precision is greatest for areas with small APS sample sizes.

Universal Credit impact on the Claimant Count and model-based unemployment

As from April 2015, the Claimant Count has included all claimants of Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA), plus those Universal Credit claimants who are required to seek work and be available for work.

Under Universal Credit (UC) a broader span of claimants are required to look for work than under Jobseeker's Allowance. As Universal Credit full service areas are rolled out across the UK, the number of people recorded as being on the Claimant Count is therefore likely to rise in those areas where full service has been implemented.

The introduction of Universal Credit in 2013 has resulted in inconsistencies in the coverage of the Claimant Count across the UK, owing to the different speeds of the UC roll out. The Claimant Count figures have consequently been re-classified as experimental statistics by the ONS. Care should therefore be taken when analysing and interpreting Universal Credit figures, Claimant Count data and model-based unemployment estimates.

APS unemployment estimates versus model-based unemployment estimates

The official unemployment estimates for the larger geographies in this analysis (Lancashire-12 and above) have been sourced from the APS. The methodology used to derive the APS unemployment estimates is different from the methodology used to obtain the model-based unemployment estimates and therefore the two sets of estimates are not truly comparable. The APS estimates have been included for information and to provide context. Please note that the number of unemployed persons for the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas derived by summing the model-based unemployment totals for the individual local authorities may differ from the APS unemployment totals for Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas. The APS estimates should be used for the higher geographies.

Model-based unemployment estimates are not produced for male or female unemployment.

Key points

For the year from October 2016 to September 2017, within the Lancashire-14 area, the official model-based unemployment rate for Blackburn with Darwen at 6.3% (+/- 1.3%) was statistically greater than the rates for Chorley (3.5%, (+/- 1.2%)), South Ribble (3.3% (+/- 1.1%)), Fylde (3.2% (+/- 1.2%)) and Ribble Valley (2.4% (+/-1.0%)).

The model-based unemployment rate for Blackpool (5.8% (+/- 1.3%)) was higher than the rates for South Ribble, Fylde and Ribble Valley in the Lancashire-14 area.

The model-based rates for Burnley (5.7% (+/- 1.8%)) and Preston (5.2% (+/- 1.6%) were greater than the rate for Ribble Valley.

Owing to the wide confidence intervals (the potential +/- statistical variance) associated with the model-based unemployment rates for Hyndburn (5.2% (+/- 1.9%)), Lancaster (4.8% (+/- 1.5%), Pendle (4.6% (+/- 1.9%)), West Lancashire (4.4% (+/- 1.5%)), Rossendale (4.1% (+/- 1.6%)) and Wyre (3.9% (+/- 1.3%)), these individual rates cannot be said to be statistically higher (or lower) than any of the model-based rates for any of the other local authorities within the Lancashire-14 area. Figure MBU1 shows that the range of potential model-based unemployment rates for each of these six individual authorities overlap with the range of potential model-based unemployment rates for all of the other local authorities in the Lancashire-14 area.

Figure MBU1: Official model-based unemployment rate estimates (with +/- confidence intervals) for local authorities and official APS unemployment estimates (with +/- confidence intervals) for larger geographic areas - October 2016 to September 2017.

Note: Confidence intervals (+/-) for both model-based unemployment estimates and APS unemployment estimates = 95%.

Sources: Official model-based unemployment estimates for districts and unitary authorities from the Office for National Statistics via the National On-line Manpower Information System (Nomis). Official unemployment estimates for the Lancashire-12 area and the Lancashire-14 sub-region, the North West and United Kingdom are sourced from ONS Annual Population Survey /Labour Force Survey via Nomis.

Within the Lancashire-14 area, Blackburn with Darwen (4,000 persons (+/- 800 persons)), Blackpool (3,800 persons (+/- 800 persons)), Preston (3,700 persons (+/- 1,000 persons) and Lancaster (3,700 persons, (+/- 1,000 persons)) had high model-based unemployment totals for the year ending September 2017.

Ignoring the +/- statistical confidence intervals, Hartlepool (9.2% (+/- 1.8%)) in the North East of England, and Tower Hamlets (9.2% (+/-2.3%)) in London, had the highest model-based unemployment rates (of the 378 local authorities in Great Britain with model-based estimates).

For the year ending September 2017, and ignoring the +/- statistical confidence intervals, South Cambridgeshire (2.0% (+/- 0.7%)) in the East of England had the lowest model-based unemployment rate of the 378 GB local authorities with model-based estimates.

Table MBU1: Official model-based estimates of unemployment ⁽¹⁾ – all persons aged 16+ - for the year October 2016 to September 2017

Notes: [1] Yearly estimates (produced quarterly). [2] The model-based unemployment methodology differs to the Annual Population Survey (APS) methodology and often produces different local authority totals and rates as a result. When the model-based district and/or unitary authority figures are summed/calculated, these may produce different figures for the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas sourced from the APS. [3] Confidence interval = 95%. To obtain the full potential range of the unemployment numbers or the unemployment rate (including the +/- confidence interval), add and subtract the +/- number unemployed or the +/- confidence percentage to/from the figure in the previous column. [4] Change in unemployment rate: please note that although the number unemployed may not have changed, a change in the unemployment rate may occur owing to a change in the economically active denominator between dates. [5] Analysis of the source data and confidence intervals is required to determine whether any changes are statistically significant. Source: Office for National Statistics – National On-line Manpower Information System (Nomis).
Table MBU1	Model-based unemployment estimates - year from October 2016 to September 2017				Yearly change (since year to Sept 2016)
Local Authority	Number of persons unemployed (2)	With confidence interval (+/-) of number unemployed (3)	Model-based unemploy-ment rate - persons aged 16+ (2) (4)	With confi-dence interval (+/-%) given below (3)	Number (5)	%	In rate ( 2) (5)
Burnley	2,700	800	5.7	1.8	100	3.8	0.1
Chorley	2,100	600	3.5	1.2	0	0.0	-0.3
Fylde	1,200	400	3.2	1.2	-100	-7.7	-0.3
Hyndburn	2,000	600	5.2	1.9	-200	-9.1	0.0
Lancaster	3,700	1,000	4.8	1.5	300	8.8	0.3
Pendle	2,000	600	4.6	1.5	0	0.0	0.0
Preston	3,700	1,000	5.2	1.6	0	0.0	-0.3
Ribble Valley	800	300	2.4	1.0	0	0.0	-0.1
Rossendale	1,400	500	4.1	1.6	-300	-17.6	-0.9
South Ribble	2,000	600	3.3	1.1	0	0.0	0.0
West Lancashire	2,400	700	4.4	1.5	0	0.0	0.1
Wyre	1,900	600	3.9	1.3	-100	-5.0	-0.1
Blackburn with Darwen	4,000	800	6.3	1.3	-200	-4.8	-0.2
Blackpool	3,800	800	5.8	1.3	-500	-11.6	-0.8

 

 

Table U1: Official unemployment estimates from the Annual Population Survey ⁽¹⁾ - persons aged 16+ for the year October 2016 to September 2017 and yearly changes (from year to September 2016)

Notes: [1] Yearly estimates (produced quarterly). [2] Confidence intervals (+/-) = 95%. To obtain the full potential range of the APS unemployment numbers or rates (including the +/- confidence interval), add and subtract the +/- number unemployed (or the +/- confidence percentage) to/from the figure in the previous column. [3] Change in APS unemployment rate: please note that although the number unemployed may not have changed, a change in the unemployment rate may occur owing to a change in the economically active denominator between dates. [4] Analysis of the source data and confidence intervals is required to determine whether any changes are statistically significant. Source: Office for National Statistics – National On-line Manpower Information System (Nomis).
Table U1	Total APS unemployment estimates -  for year from October 2016 to September 2017				Change since - year to September 2016
Area	Total number of persons unemployed	With confidence interval (+/-) of number unemployed (2)	Unemployment rate for all persons 16+ (3)	With confidence interval ±% given below (2)	Number (4)	%	In rate (2)(3)(4)
Lancashire-12 area	26,100	6,600	4.3	1.1	4,600	21.4	0.7
Lancashire-14 area	33,900	5,700	4.6	0.8	4,500	15.3	0.5
North West	166,700	11,500	4.7	0.3	-11,500	-6.5	-0.4
England	1,261,900	35,700	4.5	0.1	-126,100	-9.1	-0.5
Great Britain	1,451,800	35,600	4.5	0.1	-138,600	-8.7	-0.4
United Kingdom	1,493,300	36,300	4.5	0.1	-151,700	-9.2	-0.5

Unemployment - recent context

Unemployment has fallen substantially since the peaks following the 2008/09 recession and the 16+ yearly model-based unemployment rates are generally back to pre-recession levels. The UK yearly rate is the lowest in this series (since the year ending December 2004). UK yearly unemployment estimates peaked for the year ending June 2012 at 2,567,700 (8.1% (+/- 0.1%). Unemployment in the Lancashire-12 area fluctuated more than the UK rate since the 2008/09 recession and peaked in 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2014. The Lancashire-14 rate peaked in 2010, 2012 and 2014.

Figure MBU2: Official model-based yearly unemployment rates for Burnley, Blackpool unitary authority, Blackburn with Darwen unitary authority, Ribble Valley and the Fylde districts and official yearly unemployment rates from the Annual Population Survey for the Lancashire County Council 12-authority area and the United Kingdom for all persons aged 16+ (produced quarterly).

Note: Unemployment rates have been reproduced without their associated (+/-) confidence intervals and are therefore indicative only.  Analysis of the source data with confidence intervals is required to assess the potential deviations from the central rates and determine whether any differences are statistically significant.

Source: Office for National Statistics Annual Population Survey and Model-based unemployment estimates for districts and unitary authorities via the National On-line Manpower Information System (N.O.M.I.S.).

 

Table MBU2: Highest model-based unemployment estimates ⁽¹⁾ and highest APS unemployment estimates ⁽¹⁾ since the 2008/09 recession - all persons aged 16+ - and change to the year ending September 2017

Notes: [1] Yearly estimates (produced quarterly). [2] The model-based unemployment methodology differs to the Annual Population Survey (APS) methodology and often produces different local authority totals and rates as a result. When the model-based district and/or unitary authority figures are summed/calculated, these may produce different figures for the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas sourced from the APS. [3] Confidence interval = 95%. To obtain the full potential range of the unemployment numbers or the unemployment rate (including the +/- confidence interval), add and subtract the +/- number unemployed (or the +/- confidence percentage) to/from the figure in the previous column. [4] Change in unemployment rate: please note that although the number unemployed may not have changed, a change in the unemployment rate may occur owing to a change in the economically active denominator between dates. [5] Analysis of the source data and confidence intervals is required to determine whether any changes are statistically significant. Source: Office for National Statistics – National On-line Manpower Information System (Nomis).
Table MBU2	Highest estimated peaks in model-based unemployment rates and Annual Population Survey unemployment rates since the 2008/09 recession					Change to year ending September 2017
Local Authority	Year ending	Number of persons unemployed -  model-based or APS*(2)	With (+/-) confidence interval of number unemployed (3)	Unemployment rates - model-based or APS*- persons aged 16+(2) (4)	With confidence interval (+/-%) given below (3)	Change in numbers between the highest peak rate since the 2008/09 recession and the year ending September 2017	% change in numbers between the highest peak rate since the 2008/09 recession and the year ending September 2017	Change in the rate between the highest peak rate since the 2008/09 recession and the year ending September 2017
Burnley	Jul 2013- Jun 2014	3,800	900	10.2	3.1	-1,100	-28.9	-4.5
Chorley	Jan 2009-Dec 2009	3,300	600	6.3	1.5	-1,200	-36.4	-2.8
Fylde	Oct 2011-Sep 2012	2,000	500	5.9	2.0	-800	-40.0	-2.7
Hyndburn	Jul 2008-Jun 2009	3,100	700	8.5	2.4	-1,100	-35.5	-3.3
Lancaster	Oct 2011-Sep 2012	5,000	1,200	7.8	2.1	-1,300	-26.0	-3.0
Pendle	Oct 2011-Sep 2012	3,700	900	9.4	2.8	-1,700	-45.9	-4.8
Preston	Apr 2009-Mar 2010	6,200	1,000	9.5	1.8	-2,500	-40.3	-4.3
Ribble Valley	Oct 2008-Sep 2009	1,200	300	4.3	1.4	-400	-33.3	-1.9
Rossendale	Apr 2009-Mar 2010	2,700	600	9.0	2.7	-1,300	-48.1	-4.9
South Ribble	Apr 2009-Mar 2010	3,600	700	6.2	1.4	-1,600	-44.4	-2.9
West Lancashire	Apr 2009-Mar 2010	5,000	900	9.1	2.0	-2,600	-52.0	-4.7
Wyre	Apr 2011-Mar 2012	3,200	700	6.7	1.8	-1,300	-40.6	-2.8
Lancashire-12 *	Jan 2012-Dec 2012	46,000	8,500	7.9	1.4	-19,900	-43.3	-3.6
Blackburn with Darwen	Oct 2011-Sep 2012	6,600	1,100	10.2	1.6	-2,600	-39.4	-3.9
Blackpool	Jul 2011-Jun 2012	7,200	1,100	10.6	1.6	-3,400	-47.2	-4.8
Lancashire-14 *	Jan 2012-Dec 2012	58,200	7,200	8.1	1.0	-24,300	-41.8	-3.5
North West *	Apr 2011-Mar 2012	304,400	14,700	8.8	0.4	-137,700	-45.2	-4.1
England *	Jul 2011-Jun 2012	2,170,600	43,600	8.1	0.2	-908,700	-41.9	-3.6
Great Britain *	Jul 2011-Jun 2012	2,509,800	43,500	8.1	0.1	-1,058,000	-42.2	-3.6
United Kingdom *	Jul 2011-Jun 2012	2,576,700	44,100	8.1	0.1	-1,083,400	-42.0	-3.6

Yearly Change

Unemployment at the UK level has fallen by an estimated -151,700 persons (-9.2%) over the year, falling from 1,645,000 to 1,493,300 people. The UK rate fell by -0.5 percentage points, from 5.0% (+/- 0.1%), to 4.5% (+/- 0.1%) over the year.

Five of the local authority areas within the Lancashire-14 area saw reductions to their estimated model-based unemployment numbers and model-based unemployment rates over the previous year. However, owing to the wide +/- confidence intervals associated with the estimated numbers and rates, they are not of sufficient magnitude to be statistically significant changes. The estimated falls were in Blackpool (-500 persons, -0.8 percentage points), Rossendale (-300 persons, -0.9 percentage points), Blackburn with Darwen (-200 persons, -0.2 percentage points), Fylde (-100 persons, -0.3 percentage points) and Wyre (-100 persons, -0.1 percentage point). Hyndburn (-200 persons) also saw a fall to its estimated model-based unemployment total over the year, although its estimated model-based unemployment rate was unchanged. The lack of change the model-based unemployment rate for Hyndburn will reflect a change to the economically active denominator for Hyndburn.

The model-based unemployment rates for Preston (-0.3 percentage points), Chorley (-0.3 percentage points) and South Ribble (-0.1 percentage point) were also estimated to have fallen over the year, although their respective model-based unemployment totals were unchanged for the two dates. Again, the decreases to these rates will reflect changes to the economically active denominators for these local authority areas.

The estimated model-based unemployment numbers and rates for Pendle and South Ribble were unchanged for the years ending September 2016 and September 2017.

Lancaster (+300 persons, +0.3 percentage points) and Burnley (+100 persons, +0.1 percentage point) saw increases to their estimated model-based unemployment numbers and model-based unemployment rates over the previous year. Again, owing to the wide +/- confidence intervals associated with these estimated numbers and rates, the increases are not of sufficient magnitude to be statistically significant changes.

The model-based unemployment rates for West Lancashire (+0.1 percentage point) was also estimated to have risen over the year, although its model-based unemployment total was unchanged for the two dates. Again, the increases to the rate will reflect changes to the economically active denominator for West Lancashire. The wide +/- confidence intervals associated with these estimated numbers and rates, indicate that the increase is not of sufficient magnitude to be statistically significant.

 

Background and further information

To overcome missing and imprecise unemployment data at the district level within the Annual Population Survey / Labour Force Survey (APS/LFS), the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has developed an annual model-based methodology that has enhanced the quality of unemployment figures as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) at the local level. This has enabled more reliable and accurate unemployment estimates to be produced for local authority districts and unitary authorities. The new estimates are now accredited as National Statistics. The model-based unemployment dataset is only available for total unemployment and is not subdivided by age or sex.

Official unemployment data are not available at ward level because of insufficient sample size at that geographic level.

Important note about the accuracy and reliability of the data and interpretation

Please note that local data sourced from the Annual Population Survey / Labour Market Survey and published by the Office for National Statistics below the regional level is less accurate and can be volatile, owing to the smaller sample sizes and this may explain some of the latest variation in data. Data for the number of persons employed, those persons economically active and those persons economically inactive can vary by almost +/- 11% in some instances at the local authority district level. Figures for the two unitary authorities of Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool tend to have a lower spread of variance, being less than +/- 3.0%, owing to the larger sample sizes administered for these authorities. The figures in this article should be viewed as estimates, rather than definitive data and caution applied in their interpretation. It is also advisable to revisit subsequent releases of these datasets in the future to ascertain if the trends continue, or whether some of the figures may be a result of statistical anomalies.

Source of latest official unemployment statistics and labour market data

It is not always possible for the Business Intelligence team of Lancashire County Council to produce detailed analysis of the official unemployment data and labour market figures for the Lancashire sub-regions and Lancashire districts for every release of these statistics. The most up to date official unemployment data, together with other labour market variables and population figures, are however available within the labour market profiles for local authorities via the National Online Manpower Information System (N.O.M.I.S.) web site – see the links below. These are external links and we have no control over their content. 

• Burnley
• Chorley
• Fylde
• Hyndburn
• Lancaster
• Pendle
• Preston
• Ribble Valley
• Rossendale
• South Ribble
• West Lancashire
• Wyre

• Lancashire-12 area

• Blackburn with Darwen unitary authority
• Blackpool unitary authority

• Lancashire-14 (Local Enterprise Partnership) sub-region

Further analysis

The associated data tables, together with additional time series graphs and information are contained in the full report, which is available to download below. 

Page updated February 2018.