Universal Credit
Summary
Universal Credit is a payment for people under state pension age and on a low income or out of work. It includes support for the cost of housing, children and childcare, and financial support for people with disabilities, carers and people too ill to work.
In July 2024, the proportion of persons aged 16-64 on universal credit (UC) was 17.7% in the Lancashire-12 area, 19.6% in the Lancashire-14 area and 19.1% in the North West region. These were all higher than the Great Britain proportion of 16.7%.
Blackpool (28.5%) had the highest UC total proportion in GB (out of 350 local authorities). Burnley (27.1%) had the fourth highest proportion and Blackburn with Darwen (26.8%) the joint fifth highest in GB. Pendle (25.6%) and Hyndburn (25.1%) were ranked in the top 5% of the GB rankings. The proportions for Preston (20.2%) and Rossendale (18.0%) were also above the GB proportion (16.7%). In contrast, Ribble Valley (8.8%) had the twelfth lowest UC proportion in Great Britain, and the lowest proportion in the L-14 area and the North West region.
Blackburn with Darwen (26,156 people) and Blackpool (24,868 people) had the largest and second largest UC totals in the Lancashire-14 area in July 2024.
Preston had the largest total number of persons on Universal Credit (20,093) within the Lancashire-12 area in July 2024, followed by Burnley (15,930), Pendle (14,880), Lancaster (14,419) and Hyndburn (12,857). Ribble Valley (3,268) had the lowest number of persons on Universal Credit in the area.
Recent trends
The number of people on Universal Credit has generally been on the increase once again since early 2022.
Between June 2024 and July 2024, in the Lancashire-14 area, only Lancaster, Hyndburn and South Ribble recorded reductions to their UC totals. The pace of increase in total UC numbers has been slowing in some areas over the last three or four months. Total UC numbers in Lancaster have fallen over the last two months and are similar to numbers recorded in March 2024.
Compared to July 2023, the total number of persons on UC has increased by 18.5% in Lancashire-12 and increased by 18.4% in Lancashire-14 (GB = +14.8%).
Pendle (+33.4%) has seen the largest yearly percentage increase in the total number of people on Universal Credit in Great Britain (+14.8%) - out of 350 local authorities; Blackburn with Darwen (+27.5%) recorded the third largest percentage increase nationally. The yearly percentage increases for Ribble Valley (+20.9%), Hyndburn (+20.5%), Preston (+19.8%) and Rossendale (+19.8%) fell in the highest ten percent of the yearly percentage increase rankings in GB. Within the Lancashire-14 area, only West Lancashire (+12.6%), Lancaster (+10.4%) and Blackpool (+9.7%) saw yearly percentage rises that were below the GB rise.
Much of the increase to the UC totals since early 2022 was driven initially by the 'Not in employment' UC category. From mid-2023, numbers within the 'In employment' UC category also rose at an accelerated pace - although the rate of increase for this category has now tailed off, flattened out, or even decreased in most of the Lancashire-14 areas over the last three to four months. Between June 2024 and July 2024, twelve of the 14 areas saw monthly decreases to the numbers within the 'In employment' UC category and the two areas that saw an increase in numbers (Chorley and Ribbe Valley) were small.
The pace of increase for the 'Not in employment' UC category has also slowed in the last three to four months, although the general trend is upwards in most areas. Within the Lancashire-14 area, South Ribble, Lancaster and Blackpool have seen the most noticeable flattening of numbers for this sub-category in recent months.
The yearly percentage increases for the 'Not in employment' UC sub-category are now similar in the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas (19.6% and 19.2%, respectively), both higher than Great Britain (15.5%).
The yearly percentage increases for the 'In employment' UC sub-category are also similar in the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas (16.7% and 17.2%, respectively), both higher than Great Britain (13.6%).
All Lancashire-14 areas recorded yearly increases to the 'Not in employment' UC category and the 'In employment' UC category. The accelerated pace of the increases are particularly evident in Blackburn with Darwen and Pendle.
Information on Universal Credit data
The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) publish monthly Universal Credit statistics by local authority boundary. The chief statistician for the DWP designated these as official statistics from August 2023. The data can be sourced from the DWP's Stat-Xplore online data selection tool. The bulk of the transition to Universal Credit is estimated to be completed by the 2024/25 tax year with the migration of Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) cases estimated to continue until the 2028/29 tax year. Further information on Universal Credit statistics can be found via this link.
16-64 denominators
The working age proportions for persons aged 16 to 64 years have been produced using 2015 to 2022 rebased mid-year population estimates published by the Office for National Statistics on 15 July 2024. Mid-year popualtion estimates have been rebased from 2011 to 2022 following the 2021 Census in England and Wales and the 2022 Census in Scotland. The latest rebased estimates were published on 15 July 2024. These are available via Nomisweb (Population estimates / Projections) datasets. Mid-year population estimates for 2022 have been used from January 2022 onwards. The number of people on Universal Credit for the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas have been calculated by summing the relevant local authority area figures.
Universal Credit full service rollout
Lancaster became a Universal Credit full service area in July 2016 – the first in the Lancashire-14 area. This means that persons can process claims online, rather than via the phone. More complex claims are also processed. The result was an acceleration in the number of persons claiming Universal Credit in Lancaster. This was followed by
- Burnley, May 2017
- West Lancashire, December 2017
- Blackburn with Darwen and Hyndburn, February 2018
- Preston and South Ribble, March 2018
- Chorley, April 2018
- Pendle, Ribble Valley and Rossendale, July 2018
- Fylde, Wyre and Blackpool, September 2018
Data revised downwards from January 2016 to December 2018
The DWP has identified problems relating to individuals with multiple spells on Universal Credit (UC).
The DWP has now resolved the above issues. As a result, the number of people on Universal Credit has been revised downwards from 8 January 2016 to 13 December 2018.
The DWP recommends that users do not use previously published Universal Credit Official Statistics for People on Universal Credit made between 8 January 2016 and 13 December 2018. Further details are contained the Statistical Notice published by the DWP on 19 February 2019.
Analysis for July 2024 (revised data)
Lancashire-12 summary
Total number of people on Universal Credit
In July 2024, the total number of people on Universal Credit (UC) in the Lancashire-12 area (L-12) was 135,383 persons or 17.7% of persons aged 16-64 (GB=16.7%).
Over the month, the total increased by 449 persons or 0.3% (GB=+0.8%) and the proportion increased by 0.1 percentage point (pp) (GB=+0.1pp). Over the year, the total increased by 21,128 persons or 18.5% (GB=+14.8%) and the proportion increased by 2.8pp (GB=+2.1pp).
People on Universal Credit 'Not in employment' category
In July 2024, the Lancashire-12 'Not in employment' UC category was 83,734 persons, or 10.9% of persons aged 16-64 (GB=10.4%). This category accounted for 61.8% of the UC total (GB=62.0%).
Over the month, it increased by 1,068 persons or 1.3% (GB=+1.4%) and the proportion increased by 0.1pp (GB=+0.2pp). Over the year, it increased by 13,740 persons or 19.6% (GB=+15.5%) and the proportion increased by 1.8pp (GB=+1.4pp).
People on Universal Credit 'In employment' category
In July 2024, the Lancashire-12 'In employment' UC category was 51,652 persons or 6.7% of persons aged 16-64 (GB=6.3%). This category accounted for 38.2% of the UC total (GB=38.0%).
Over the month, numbers were down by 618 persons or -1.2% (GB= -0.3%) and the proportion decreased by -0.1pp (GB= -0.1pp). Over the year, numbers increased by 7,393 persons or 16.7% (GB=+14.9%) and the proportion increased by 0.9pp (GB=+0.7pp).
People on Universal Credit and proportions (% of persons aged 16 to 64), July 2024 (revised)
Note: Denominators and proportions - see above 'Things you need to know about the data'.
Source: People on Universal Credit via DWP via Stat-Xplore, and Nomisweb (Population estimates / Projections) datasets for rebased 2015 to 2022 mid-year population estimates, published on 15 July 2024.
Lancashire-14 summary
Total number of people on Universal Credit
In July 2024, the UC total in the Lancashire-14 area, was 186,407 persons or 19.6% of persons aged 16-64 (GB=16.7%).
Over the month, the total increased by 643 people or 0.3% (GB=+0.8%) and the proportion rose by 0.1pp (GB=+0.1pp). Over the year, the total increased by 28,974 persons or 18.4% (GB=+14.8%) and the proportion increased by 3.0pp (GB=+2.1pp).
People on Universal Credit 'Not in employment' category
In July 2024, the Lancashire-14 'Not in employment' UC category was 116,632 persons or 12.3% of persons aged 16-64 (GB=10.4%). This category accounted for 62.6% of the UC total (GB=62.0%).
Over the month, it increased by 1,366 persons or 1.2% (GB=+1.4%) and the proportion rose by 0.2pp (GB=+0.2pp). Over the year, it increased by 18,757 persons or 19.2% (GB=+15.5%) and the proportion increased by 2.0pp (GB=+1.4pp).
People on Universal Credit 'In employment' category
In July 2024, the Lancashire-14 'In employment' UC category was 69,778 persons or 7.3% of persons aged 16-64 (GB=6.3%). This category accounted for 37.4% of the UC total (GB=38.0%).
Over the month, numbers were down by 720 persons or -1.0% (GB= -0.3%) and the proportion decreased by -0.1pp (GB= -0.1pp). Over the year, numbers increased by 10,227 persons or 17.2% and the proportion increased by 1.0pp (GB=+0.7pp).
Yearly percentage change in total Universal Credit numbers
All Lancashire-14 areas saw increases to their total Universal Credit numbers over the year.
Eleven of the Lancashire-14 areas saw yearly percentage increases to their totals above the GB increase (+14.8%).
Pendle (+33.4%, up 3,723 people) has seen the largest yearly percentage increase in the total number of people on Universal Credit in Great Britain (+14.8%) - out of 350 local authorities; Blackburn with Darwen (+27.5%, up 5,649 people) recorded the third largest percentage increase nationally. The yearly percentage increases for Ribble Valley (+20.9%, up 567 people), Hyndburn (+20.5%, up 2,183 persons), Preston (+19.8%, up 3,321 persons) and Rossendale (+19.8%, up 1,302 people) fell in the highest ten percent of the yearly percentage increase rankings in GB. Within the Lancashire-14 area, only West Lancashire (+12.6%, up 1,193 people), Lancaster (+10.4%, up 1,358 people) and Blackpool (+9.7%, up 2,197 people) saw yearly percentage rises that were below the GB rise (+14.8%).
Composition of the yearly change by Universal Credit sub-category
Much of the increase to the UC totals since early 2022 was driven initially by the 'Not in employment' UC category. From mid-2023, numbers within the 'In employment' UC category also rose at an accelerated pace - although the rate of increase for this category has now tailed off, flattened out, or even decreased in most of the Lancashire-14 areas over the last three to four months. Between June 2024 and July 2024, twelve of the 14 areas saw monthly decreases to the numbers within the 'In employment' UC category and the two areas that saw an increase in numbers (Chorley and Ribbe Valley) were small.
The pace of increase for the 'Not in employment' UC category has also slowed in the last three to four months, although the general trend is upwards in most areas. Within the Lancashire-14 area, South Ribble, Lancaster and Blackpool have seen the most noticeable flattening of numbers for this sub-category in recent months.
The yearly percentage increases for the 'Not in employment' UC sub-category are now similar in the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas (19.6% and 19.2%, respectively), both higher than Great Britain (15.5%).
The yearly percentage increases for the 'In employment' UC sub-category are also similar in the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas (16.7% and 17.2%, respectively), both higher than Great Britain (13.6%).
All Lancashire-14 areas recorded yearly increases to the 'Not in employment' UC category and the 'In employment' UC category.
In eleven of the Lancashire-14 areas, the yearly percentage increases in the 'Not in employment' UC category were above the GB rise of 15.5%.
Pendle saw the largest yearly percentage increase (+37.6%, up 2,656 people) for the 'Not in employment' UC category in Great Britain (out of 350 local authorities); Blackburn with Darwen (+24.9%, up 3,352 people) recorded the fifth largest percentage increase in GB. The yearly percentage increases for Hyndburn (+21.9%, up 1,492 people), Ribble Valley (+21.3%, up 307 people) and Rossendale (+20.3%) fell in the highest ten percent of the GB yearly percentage increase rankings for this sub-category. Within the Lancashire-14 area, only West Lancashire (+14.1%, 809 persons), Blackpool (+11.6%, up 1,665 people) and Lancaster (+11.2%) saw yearly percentage rises that were below the GB rise (+15.5%) for the 'Not in employment' UC category. The Lancashire-14 yearly percentage increase was 19.2% (up 18,757 people). The Lancashire-12 yearly percentage increase was 19.6% (up 13,740 people).
For the 'In employment' UC category, eleven of the Lancashire-14 areas recorded yearly percentage increases that were greater than the GB rise of 13.6%.
Blackburn with Darwen had the largest yearly percentage increase (+32.6%, up 2,297 people) for the 'In employment' UC category in Great Britain (out of 350 local authorities); Pendle (+26.2%, up 1,069 people) saw the fifth largest percentage increase in GB. The yearly percentage increases for Ribble Valley (+21.0%, up 268 persons) and Preston (+20.9%, up 1,309 people) fell in the highest ten percent of the GB yearly percentage increase rankings for this sub-category. Within the Lancashire-14 area, again only West Lancashire (+10.2%, up 385 persons), Lancaster (+9.1%, up 466 people) and Blackpool (+6.5%, up 537 people) recorded yearly percentage rises that were below the GB rise (+13.6%) for the 'In employment' UC category. The Lancashire-14 yearly percentage increase was 17.2% (up 10,277 people). The Lancashire-12 yearly percentage increase was 16.7% (up 7,393 people).
Impact of Covid-19 on Universal Credit: March 2020 to May 2020
Owing to the initial lockdown on 23 March 2020 in response to the coronavirus pandemic, the UK economy subsequently experienced a sharp, deep recession. Recovery of the economy to its pre-pandemic level was achieved in Quarter 1 (January to March) of 2022. The economic downturn was reflected in a substantial rise in the number of people on Universal Credit between March 2020 and May 2020.
In the Lancashire-12 area, UC total numbers rose from 60,594 in March 2020 to 99,812 in May 2020 (+39,218 persons, +64.7%). The UC total proportion rose from 8.1% to 13.4% (up 5.3 percentage points).
In the Lancashire-14 area, numbers increased from 84,349 in March 2020 to 137,072 persons in May 2020 (+52,723 persons, +62.5%). The UC total proportion increased from 9.1% to 14.9% (up 5.8 percentage points).
In Great Britain, total numbers rose from 3,011,519 in March 2020 to 5,255,668 persons in May 2020 (+2,244,149 people, +74.5%). The UC total proportion rose from 7.4% to 12.9% (up 5.5 percentage points).
Data
People on Universal Credit, July 2024 data (revised), plus monthly and yearly changes - and change from March 2020 (XLSX 33 KB)
Page updated 23 September 2024