Claimants of Jobseeker's Allowance

Note

Reporting of Jobseeker's Allowance data As from October 2017, Business Intelligence at Lancashire County Council has not monitored Jobseeker's Allowance data on a monthly basis. This is owing to the roll out of the Universal Credit benefit system across the UK, which is gradually reducing the number of claimants of Jobseeker's Allowance. Future updates will be on a much reduced frequency. Readers may, however, find our monthly analyses of the Claimant Count and the Universal Credit dataset of interest.  As from April 2015, the Claimant Count has included all claimants of Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA), plus those Universal Credit claimants who are required to seek work and be available for work. The Claimant Count therefore now provides a more comprehensive dataset of those persons claiming benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed. Please note that the Claimant Count does not measure official unemployment. Official unemployment has a wider definition and includes those economically active unemployed persons who meet the definition criteria, and who do not claim benefits, either through choice, or for reasons of non-eligibility. Official unemployment figures therefore tend to be somewhat higher than the Claimant Count.

Summary

Universal Credit (UC) is replacing a number of working age benefits, including Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA). Please note that Universal Credit will replace income-based claimants of JSA, but not contribution-based JSA claimants.

The number of persons claiming Jobseeker's Allowance has reduced substantially since the peaks recorded between 2009 and 2013 in the aftermath the 2008-09 UK recession. Early falls were owing to a pick up in the economy. The initial roll out of the Universal Credit live service from June 2014 in the North West, and February 2015 in the rest of the UK, has contributed to the reduction in the number of JSA claimants. The subsequent roll out to Universal Credit full service provision from November 2015 onwards has accelerated the decrease in the number of JSA claimants, especially in those areas where UC full service provision was implemented early in the process.

Universal Credit full service provision began to be rolled out in the North West of England in July 2016 in the Lancaster City Council and Halton Borough Council areas.

Since July 2016, the number of JSA claimants in the UK has decreased by 62.4% (350,173 people), from 561,324 persons in July 2016, to 211,151 people in July 2019. The JSA proportion for the UK has decreased by 0.9 percentage points over this period, falling from 1.4% to 0.5%.

The majority of the reduction in JSA claimants since July 2016 at the UK level has however occurred over the last year, from July 2018 to July 2019. This probably reflects the transition of the final areas in the UK onto Universal Credit full service provision during 2018. This pattern is also replicated at the North West regional level and locally, for the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas. At the district and unitary authority level, however, the pattern is more varied, depending on the date when each area transitioned onto the Universal Credit full service provision from the initial (UC) live service provision.

Between July 2018 and July 2019, the number of JSA claimants in the UK decreased by 211,427 persons (50.0%), or by a half, to 211,151 persons, and the rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points, from 1.0% to 0.5%. This compares to a fall in JSA claimants of just 60,111 (12.5%) in the previous year, from July 2017 to July 2018, when the JSA proportion fell by a lower 0.2 percentage points. Between July 2016 and July 2017 the number of JSA claimants in the UK decreased by 78,635 persons (14.0%) and the rate again dropped by 0.2 percentage points.

In the Lancashire-12 area between July 2018 and July 2019, the number of JSA claimants fell by 3,151 persons (50.1%) from 6,289 in July 2018, to 3,138 in July 2019. The JSA claimant rate for the Lancashire-12 area fell by 0.5 percentage points from 0.9% in July 2018, to 0.4% in July 2019.

For the Lancashire-14 area, between July 2018 and July 2019, the number of JSA claimants fell by 4,508 persons (49.0%) from 9,206 in July 2018, to 4,698 in July 2019. The JSA claimant rate for the Lancashire-14 area fell by 0.5 percentage points from 1.0% in July 2018, to 0.5% in July 2019.

The JSA claimant proportions for 10 of the Lancashire-12 areas and Blackburn with Darwen are now at 0.5% or lower as at July 2019. The same is true for the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas, the North West region and the UK. Only Blackpool (1.3%), Pendle (0.8%) and Rossendale (0.8%) within the Lancashire-14 area have proportions above the UK figure. As these three areas were amongst the last to have Universal Credit full service provision implemented in the Lancashire-14 area, the JSA numbers and proportions are expected to fall in the coming months.

The first five Lancashire-14 areas to implement Universal Credit full service provision saw immediate reductions in the number JSA claimants and an accelerated rise in the number of persons claiming Universal Credit. These five areas are Lancaster, Burnley, West Lancashire, Blackburn with Darwen and Hyndburn.

The remaining nine Lancashire-14 areas, have however deviated from this pattern as they have recorded increases and/or fluctuations to their JSA claimant totals for two to four months after their respective transitions to UC full service provision.

Within the Lancashire-12 area, three local authorities, Preston (1.0 percentage point), Chorley (0.7 percentage points) and South Ribble (0.6 percentage points) recorded yearly reductions to their proportions that were greater than the UK fall of 0.5 percentage points. Blackpool (1.0 percentage point), in the wider Lancashire-14 area, also recorded a decrease to its proportion that was greater than the UK fall. Preston and South Ribble made the transition to Universal Credit full service provision in March 2018, whilst Chorley did so in April 2018. Blackpool was one of the last Lancashire-14 areas to transition to Universal Credit full service provision in September 2018.

Lancaster (July 2016), Burnley (May 2017) and West Lancashire (December 2017) were the first three areas to have Universal Credit full service provision rolled out within the Lancashire-14 area. The low yearly decreases to the JSA claimant totals and proportions between July 2018 and July 2019 probably reflect the fact that the process to transfer JSA claims to Universal Credit is well advanced in these areas.

 

Source: Office for National Statistic via the National On-line Manpower Information System (Nomis).

Analysis of July 2019 Jobseeker's Allowance data

Data for July 2019 and change figures may be affected by differing speeds of the roll out of Universal Credit across the country. This should be borne in mind when analysing the figures.

In July 2019, claimants of Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) in the United Kingdom totalled 211,151 people and the proportion of working age residents aged 16 to 64 years claiming JSA was 0.5%. The proportion for men (0.6%) was higher than that for women (0.4%). Males accounted for 60.3% of the JSA claimant total.

The number of people claiming JSA within the Lancashire-12 area totalled 3,138 persons and the proportion of working age residents claiming JSA was 0.4%, which was lower than the UK average of 0.5%. Of the total number of JSA claimants, 1,907 were men and 1,231 were women. The proportion for men (0.5%) was higher than that for women (0.3%). These were lower than the respective proportions for men (0.6%) and women (0.4%) at the UK level. Males in the Lancashire-12 area accounted for 60.8% of the total.

JSA claimants in the Lancashire-14 area totalled 4,698 and the proportion was 0.5%, which was the same as the UK proportion. Of this total, 2,884 were men and 1,814 were women. The proportion for men (0.6%) was higher than that for women (0.4%). These were the same as the respective proportions for men and women at the UK level. Males in the Lancashire-14 area accounted for 61.4% of the total.

Within the Lancashire-12 area, Pendle (0.8%) and Rossendale (0.8%) had proportions which were greater than the UK average of 0.5%. The proportions for Preston, Wyre, Burnley, Hyndburn and Fylde were the same as the UK figure. The remaining five authorities within the Lancashire County Council 12-authority area had proportions which were lower than the UK average (0.5%). Lancaster (0.2%), West Lancashire (0.2%) and Ribble Valley (0.2%) had the lowest proportions in the area.

In the wider Lancashire-14 area, Blackpool's proportion (1.3%) was greater than the UK average (0.5%), whilst the proportion for Blackburn with Darwen (0.5%) was the same as the UK figure.

Figure 1: Proportions of working age residents aged 16 to 64 claiming Jobseeker's Allowance – July 2019

Source: Office for National Statistics via the National On-line Manpower Information System (Nomis).

Yearly change

Between July 2018 and July 2019, the UK JSA proportion has fallen by 0.5 percentage points, from 1.0% to 0.5%, and the number of JSA claimants has fallen by 211,427 people (50.0%), to 211,151 people.

The number of JSA claimants within both the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas fell by similar percentages, 50.1% and 49.0%, respectively.

The Lancashire-12 area also recorded a yearly decrease to its proportion of 0.5 percentage points, falling from 0.9% to 0.4%, with the number of JSA claimants decreasing by 3,151 (50.1%) to 3,138 people.

The Lancashire-14 proportion again fell by 0.5 percentage points, decreasing from 1.0% to 0.5%, with the number of JSA claimants reducing by 4,508 persons (49.0%) to 4,698 people.

All of the Lancashire-14 local authority areas recorded reductions to their JSA claimant totals and proportions between July 2018 and July 2019.

Numerically, Preston (-971 persons, -68.1%) recorded the largest reduction in JSA claimants over the previous year in the Lancashire-12 area, followed by Chorley (-485 persons, -69.4%) and South Ribble (-427 persons, -70.2%). Blackpool (-905 persons, -45.8%) recorded the second largest yearly reduction the wider Lancashire-14 area. Of these areas, South Ribble (70.2%), Chorley (69.4%) and Preston (68.1%) also saw their JSA totals decrease by a greater percentage than the UK yearly reduction of 50.0%.

Within the Lancashire-12 area, three local authorities, Preston (1.0 percentage point), Chorley (0.7 percentage points) and South Ribble (0.6 percentage points) recorded yearly reductions to their proportions that were greater than the UK fall of 0.5 percentage points. Blackpool (1.0 percentage point), in the wider Lancashire-14 area, also recorded a decrease to its proportion that was greater than the UK fall. Preston and South Ribble made the transition to Universal Credit full service provision in March 2018, whilst Chorley did so in April 2018. Blackpool was one of the last Lancashire-14 areas to transition to Universal Credit full service provision in September 2018.

The remaining nine Lancashire-12 authority areas, plus Blackburn with Darwen (in the wider Lancashire-14 area), also recorded decreases to their respective JSA proportions between July 2018 and July 2019, ranging from reductions of 0.5 percentage points to 0.1 percentage point.

Rossendale, Pendle and Blackburn with Darwen each recorded decreases to their proportions of 0.5 percentage points, Wyre saw a reduction of 0.4 percentage points, whilst Hyndburn and Fylde each saw a decrease of 0.3 percentage points. Burnley, West Lancashire and Ribble Valley each saw reductions of 0.2 percentage points to their respective JSA proportions. Lancaster recorded the lowest fall to its JSA proportion in the Lancashire-14 area between July 2018 and July 2019, decreasing by just 0.1 percentage point to 0.2%. Lancaster also saw the lowest numeric and percentage decreases over the year (-30 persons, -13.0%).

Lancaster (July 2016), Burnley (May 2017) and West Lancashire (December 2017) were the first three areas to have Universal Credit full service provision rolled out within the Lancashire-14 area. The low yearly decreases to the JSA claimant totals and proportions between July 2018 and July 2019 probably reflect the fact that the process to transfer JSA claims to Universal Credit is well advanced in these areas.   

Source: Office for National Statistic via the National On-line Manpower Information System (Nomis).

Monthly change

Between June 2019 and July 2019, the number of persons claiming JSA in the UK fell by 8,848 people (4.0%) although the proportion was unchanged at 0.5%.

The JSA claimant proportion for the Lancashire-12 area remained unchanged at 0.4% over the month, although the number of claimants decreased by 145 persons (4.4%). The Lancashire-14 JSA claimant proportion also remained unchanged at 0.5% over the month, although claimant numbers decreased by 275 persons (5.5%).

The JSA claimant proportions fell in three of the Lancashire-12 authority areas (Rossendale, Wyre and Ribble Valley) by 0.1 percentage point each, over the previous month. The proportion for Blackpool, in the wider Lancashire-14 area, also decreased by 0.1 percentage point. The proportions for remaining nine areas in the Lancashire-12 area and in Blackburn with Darwen were unchanged.

Eleven of the Lancashire-12 authorities saw reductions to the number of JSA claimants over the previous month, ranging from 32 persons in Preston, to 1 person in South Ribble.

Blackpool (110 people) recorded the largest monthly decrease in JSA claimants in the wider Lancashire-14 area, whilst the reduction in Blackburn with Darwen totalled 20 people.

JSA claimant numbers decreased by a greater percentage than the UK fall of 4.0% in seven of the Lancashire-12 areas and also in Blackpool (9.3%, 110 persons). In the Lancashire-12 area, Rossendale (7.0%, 27 persons), West Lancashire (6.8%, 11 persons), Wyre (6.7%, 24 persons) and Preston (6.6%, 32 persons) saw the largest monthly percentage decreases.

Only Lancaster saw an increase in the number of JSA claimants over the previous month of 15 persons (8.1%) in the Lancashire-14 area. This may reflect the fact that Lancaster was the first Lancashire-14 authority to become a Universal Credit full service area in July 2016, and that the number of JSA claimants may now go up as well as down.  

Important notes in relation to the JSA data series and the roll out of Universal Credit

The number of JSA claimants is expected to reduce over the next few years owing to the roll out of Universal Credit and an increasing number of income-based JSA claimants being processed as Universal Credit claimants. Universal Credit live service was the initial level of provision rolled out in the North West in mid-2014, and across the rest of the UK in February 2015. Please note that Universal Credit will not replace contribution-based JSA claimants. Caution should be applied when interpreting the JSA data as totals are likely to have changed in part as a result of the introduction of Universal Credit, rather than claimants finding employment or moving off JSA for other reasons.  

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) began the transition onto Universal Credit full service provision for all types of claimant types in the London Boroughs of Croydon and Southwark in November 2015, and across the rest of the UK, beyond London, in May 2016. Universal Credit full service means that persons can process their claims online, rather than via the phone.

Within the Lancashire-14 area, Lancaster became a Universal Credit full service area in July 2016, followed by Burnley in May 2017 and West Lancashire in December 2017. Blackburn with Darwen and Hyndburn became full service areas in February 2018 and Preston and South Ribble in March 2018. Chorley became a full service area in April 2018. Pendle, Ribble Valley and Rossendale all became Universal Credit full service areas in July 2018. Blackpool, Fylde and Wyre were the last Lancashire-14 areas to transition to UC full service provision in September 2018.

The result of Lancaster becoming a UC full service area has been an accelerated reduction in JSA claimants (especially in the first year after transition) and an accelerated rise in persons claiming Universal Credit. This pattern has been replicated in the remaining Lancashire-14 areas as they have transitioned to UC full service provision. 

After the Universal Credit full service rollout has been completed, the DWP will then begin moving all remaining existing benefit claimants onto the Universal Credit full service. This is currently expected to be completed by December 2023. Further information on the Universal Credit full service can be found via this Gov.uk web link. The Universal Credit full service rollout schedule is available via this web link.   

True assessment of Universal Credit statistics, or individual welfare benefits, is further complicated by the imposition of sanctions, where benefit payments can be withdrawn from claimants for varying periods of time (lasting for up to three years) for non-compliance with Claimant Commitments. At the present time, the total number of people who are subject to sanctions for a single point in time is not able to be provided by the Department for Work and Pensions at the local district level.

Please see the PDF report below (Claimants of Job Seeker's Allowance, July 2019) for further analysis and tables showing the change in JSA claimant numbers from various UC full service transition dates.

Page updated 30 August 2019

Please note that the Claimants of Jobseeker's Allowance, July 2019, full report (PDF download above), initially published on 30 August 2019, was republished on 25 September 2019 with narrative text corrections to the Lancaster change figures in section 3.5.2 between July 2016 and July 2017, and between July 2018 and July 2019.