Claimant Count figures
Summary
The Claimant Count includes the number of people on Universal Credit who are required to seek work and be available for work, plus people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance. It is the headline indicator of the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed. Claimant Count data are currently designated as 'official statistics in development'.
In September 2024, the revised proportion of persons aged 16-64 on the Claimant Count was 4.1% in the Lancashire-12 area. This was marginally lower than the United Kingdom proportion of 4.2%. However, the proportions for the Lancashire-14 area (4.5%) and the North West region (4.6%) were above the UK figure.
Pendle (7.1%) had the joint ninth highest proportion in the UK (out of 361 local authority areas). Burnley (6.7%), Blackburn with Darwen (6.6%), Hyndburn (6.1%), and Blackpool (6.0%) were in the highest 10% of the UK rankings. Preston (5.1%) and Rossendale (4.3%) also had figures above the UK proportion (4.2%).
Compared to September 2023, the Claimant Count has increased by 20.2% in Lancashire-12 and increased by 19.6% in Lancashire-14 (UK = +16.1%).
Pendle's Claimant Count total has increased by the largest percentage over the last year in the UK (out of 361 local authority areas), rising by 44.9%, or +1,285 persons (UK = +16.1%). The yearly percentage rise for Blackburn with Darwen of 33.7% (+1,655 persons) was the fourth highest in the UK. Burnley's (+26.9%) yearly percentage increase fell in the highest 8 percent of the rankings, whilst the rise for Chorley (+19.6%) was in the top 25% of the rankings. The yearly rises for Preston (+18.2%) and Fylde (+18.0%) were in the top third of the rankings. The yearly percentage increases for Hyndburn (+17.4%), Rossendale (+17.2%) and Ribble Valley (+17.2%) were also above the UK rise (+16.1%).
Recent trends
Following the peaks in Claimant Count numbers in 2020 and 2021, resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic, the pace of the subsequent reduction in Claimant Count numbers slowed over the summer and autumn of 2022. The usual uptick in Claimant Count numbers from the late autumn of 2022 to the early spring of 2023 was evident. The seasonal upturn in Claimant Count numbers usually reflects the reduction in tourism and festive employment that occurs over the autumn and winter months. This seasonal trend is particularly evident in Blackpool.
The usual autumn and winter seasonal upticks are apparent again in 2023/24 in many areas. However, the usual spring and summer decreases in Claimant numbers were short-lived at the UK level and numbers have risen in May, June and July of 2024. The rise from June 2024 to July 2024 has been sharp (+8.4%, +137,465 persons). This deviation from the usual trend is likely to reflect action taken by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) that began in May 2024. From this month, the DWP began to roll out an increase in the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality. This change is likely to affect around 180,000 claimants over a period of around 6 months, increasing the Claimant Count over that time. UK Claimant Count numbers subsequently fell slightly in August 2024 and then in September 2024.
In the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas, during 2024, Claimant Count numbers only fell (slightly) in June, but saw sharp increases in July 2024, 8.1% and 8.4%, respectively (UK = +8.4%), reflecting the DWP action on the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality. Sharp increases in July 2024 were also recorded in the majority of the Lancashire-14 areas, with the rise in Ribble Valley (+2.9%) being less notable.
Prior to July 2024, most of the local authority areas in the Lancashire-14 area saw only slight and late reductions to their totals in the spring and early summer period of 2024. Numbers in Lancaster had changed little since September 2023. Only Blackpool, Fylde, Wyre, South Ribble and West Lancashire appeared to be following a more usual seasonal trend pattern prior to July 2024 (although perhaps less pronounced).
Since July 2024, the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas have seen slight reductions to their respective Claimant Count numbers in both August and September 2024, This follows the UK and North West trend. Hyndburn, Pendle, Wyre and Blackpool have also seen this downward trend in both months. Burnley, Ribble Valley, South Ribble and West Lancashire saw reductions to their Claimant Count numbers in September 2024, In contrast, Preston and Rossendale have recorded increases in both August and September 2024. Chorley, Fylde, Lancaster and Blackburn with Darwen also recorded increases to their Claimant Count totals in September 2024.
Of note, prior to July 2024, Pendle, Blackburn with Darwen, Burnley, Hyndburn and Preston had seen notable sharp increases to their Claimant Count totals over the previous six to nine months. Pendle's proportion is now the highest in the Lancashire-14 area. The increases prior to July 2024 and the deviation from the usual spring and summer reductions may possibly reflect increased action by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) to transfer people onto Universal Credit from legacy benefits.
This analysis focuses on the revised (final) Claimant Count data. However, a summary of the latest provisional percentage change in the Claimant Count gives an idea of whether it is decreasing or increasing.
The introduction of Universal Credit (UC) in 2013 resulted in inconsistencies in the coverage of the Claimant Count across the UK, owing to the different speeds of the UC roll out. In June 2015, the Claimant Count figures were consequently re-classified as 'official statistics in development' (previously experimental statistics) by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Care should therefore be taken when analysing and interpreting the figures.
Under Universal Credit a broader span of claimants are required to look for work than under JSA. This can include some claimants who are in employment but earning below a certain earnings threshold. The rollout of the Universal Credit full service areas across Great Britain was completed by the end of 2018 and resulted in the number of people recorded as being on the Claimant Count increasing. The bulk of the migration of claimants on the previous legacy benefits to Universal Credit is expected to be completed by the end of March 2025 with the remaining claimants of Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) expected to be completed by the end of March 2029. Claimant Count numbers are therefore expected to rise as the various stages of the migration are processed.
Commencing in May 2024, the Department for Work and Pensions are rolling out an increase in the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality. This change is likely to affect around 180,000 claimants over a period of around 6 months, increasing the Claimant Count over that time.
Denominators used to calculate Claimant Count proportions
The data is this report is powered by LG Inform Plus. Some Claimant Count proportions within this analysis may differ to the proportions sourced directly from the National On-line Manpower Information System (Nomisweb) as LG Inform Plus have applied the latest relevant mid-year population estimates. These are the rebased mid-year population estimates from 2012 to 2022 published on 15 July 2024 by the ONS. This is because Scotland has now undertaken rebasing to revise its annual mid-year population estimates for 2012 to 2021, using Scotland's Census 2022. These replace the revised back series of population estimates for 2012 to 2021 that was previously released in November 2023 for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. These estimates were based on Census 2021.
The latest rankings of local authority Claimant Count proportions in the UK are approximate as the 2023 mid-year population estimates have been used from 2023 onwards as the source of the 16-64 working age denominators to calculate the proportions for local authority areas in England and Wales, however, the 2022 mid-year population estimates have been used for local authority areas in Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Office for National Statistics plan to release a full set of UK population estimates for mid-2023 in autumn 2024. These will include estimates for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Claimant Count data versus official unemployment and small area data
Please note that the Claimant Count does not measure official unemployment. Official unemployment has a wider definition and includes those economically active unemployed persons who meet the definition criteria, and who do not claim benefits, either through choice, or for reasons of non-eligibility. Official unemployment figures therefore tend to be somewhat higher than the Claimant Count.
Official unemployment data is not available below the district/unitary authority level, whereas Claimant Count data is available for small geographic areas such as wards and smaller lower-layer super output areas (LSOAs). The Claimant Count therefore provides a good proxy for unemployment at the small local level. Generally, a high Claimant Count in an area is a good indicator of high unemployment in that area.
Information about the wider labour market can be found in the monthly statistical bulletins produced by the ONS on the UK labour market and the regional labour markets in the UK.
The impact of Universal Credit on JSA numbers
Generally, the number of JSA claimants has reduced as Universal Credit has been rolled out. However, the number of JSA claimants increased between March 2020 and September 2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic took hold. JSA numbers have generally declined since this time, although they can still fluctuate.
Impact of the Universal Credit full service roll out on the Claimant Count
Lancaster became a Universal Credit full service area in July 2016 – the first in the Lancashire-14 area. This means that persons can process claims online, rather than via the phone. More complex claims are also processed. The result was an acceleration in the number of persons claiming Universal Credit in Lancaster. This was followed by
- Burnley, May 2017
- West Lancashire, December 2017
- Blackburn with Darwen and Hyndburn, February 2018
- Preston and South Ribble, March 2018
- Chorley, April 2018
- Pendle, Ribble Valley and Rossendale, July 2018
- Fylde, Wyre and Blackpool, September 2018
October 2024 provisional percentage change in numbers
In October 2024, the provisional number of persons aged 16-64 on the Claimant Count fell by 0.7% over the month on the revised figures for September 2024 in the Lancashire-12 area and fell by 0.1% in the Lancashire-14 area. These decreases are contrary to the UK percentage rise of 1.2%. Six of the Lancashire-14 local authority areas also saw provisional decreases to their totals.
The provisional monthly count will change when the revised (final) figures are released next month, and they are usually lower.
September 2024 revised (final) data: analysis
Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas
In September 2024, the revised proportion of persons aged 16-64 on the Claimant Count was 4.1% in the Lancashire-12 area. This was marginally lower than the United Kingdom proportion of 4.2%. However, the proportions for the Lancashire-14 area (4.5%) and the North West region (4.6%) were above the UK figure.
September 2024 graphs and data tables
[1] All Claimant Count numbers are rounded to the nearest 5. Claimant Count numbers may not sum exactly to the combined number of people claiming JSA (published on Nomis) and the number of people claiming Universal Credit and required to seek work (published by DWP), owing to independent rounding.
[2] Some proportions in the Claimant Count Microsoft Power BI report above and analysis may differ to the proportions sourced directly from the National On-line Manpower Information System (Nomisweb) as LG Inform Plus have applied the latest relevant mid-year population estimates. These are the rebased mid-year population estimates from 2012 to 2022 published on 15 July 2024 by the ONS. This is because Scotland has now undertaken rebasing to revise its annual mid-year population estimates for 2012 to 2021, using Scotland's Census 2022. These replace the revised back series of population estimates for 2012 to 2021 that was previously released in November 2023 for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. These estimates were based on Census 2021.
[3] From 2023 onwards, the 2023 mid-year population estimates have been used as the source of the 16-64 working age denominators used to calculate Claimant Count proportions for local authority areas in England and Wales but the 2022 mid-year population estimates have been used for local authority areas in Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Office for National Statistics plan to release a full set of UK population estimates for mid-2023 in autumn 2024. These will include estimates for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Source: Powered by LG Inform Plus - Claimant Count numbers sourced from the Office for National Statistics via the National On-line Manpower Information System (Nomisweb - Claimant Count dataset). Claimant Count proportions calculated by LG Inform Plus. Some proportions may differ to the proportions sourced directly from Nomis as LG Inform Plus have applied the latest relevant mid-year population estimates (see notes above).
District summary
Five of the six local authority areas in the east of the Lancashire-14 area, plus Blackpool and Preston have proportions above the UK.
Pendle had a proportion of 7.1%, the joint ninth highest in the UK - out of 361 local authority areas. Pendle has seen a very sharp increase to its Claimant Count total and proportion since December 2023. Pendle's proportion is now the highest in the Lancashire-14 area.
Pendle's Claimant Count total has increased by the largest percentage over the last year in the UK (out of 361 local authority areas), rising by 44.9%, or +1,285 persons (UK = +16.1%).
The proportions for Burnley (6.7%), Blackburn with Darwen (6.6%), Hyndburn (6.1%) and Blackpool (6.0%) were in the highest 10% of the UK rankings. Blackburn with Darwen, Burnley and Hyndburn have also seen steep rises to their Claimant Count numbers and proportions since November/December 2023. The yearly percentage rise for Blackburn with Darwen of 33.7% (+1,655 persons) was the fourth highest in the UK and Burnley's percentage rise (+26.9%) fell in the highest 8 percent of the yearly increase rankings.
Preston (5.1%) and Rossendale (4.3%) also had proportions above the UK figure (4.2%).
Ribble Valley (1.9%) had the lowest proportion in the Lancashire-14 area and the North West region and was the sixth joint-lowest in the UK.
In the Lancashire-12 area, Preston (5,260) had the highest total, followed by Pendle (4,150), Burnley (3,985), Hyndburn (3,145) and Lancaster (2,865). Ribble Valley (715) had the lowest total.
The total for Blackburn with Darwen (6,565) was the highest in the Lancashire-14 area, whilst Blackpool's total (5,225) was the third highest in the area, just below the total for Preston (5,260).
Lancashire-12 summary
For the Lancashire-12 area, the Claimant Count total was 31,610 (4.1%) persons in September 2024, 17,435 were men and 14,180 were women. The proportion for men (4.5%) was higher than that for women (3.6%). (UK men = 4.5%, women = 3.8%). Males in the Lancashire-12 area accounted for 55.2% of the total (UK = 53.7%).
The total in September 2024 was down by 180 persons (-0.6%) on the previous month (UK = -0.2%); the L-12 proportion was unchanged on the previous month (the UK proportions was also unchanged).
Two of the L-12 areas recorded monthly increases to their proportions, eight were unchanged and two decreased. In both Chorley and Fylde, the proportion increased by 0.1 percentage point. The proportion for Hyndburn fell by the largest extent (down 0.2 pps), followed by Wyre that saw a decrease of 0.1 percentage point. The proportions for remaining eight local authority areas were unchanged.
Compared to September 2023, the total rose by 20.2% (+5,320 persons). (UK = +16.1%); the L-12 proportion was up by 0.7 percentage points (UK = +0.6 pps).
All of the 12 areas recorded yearly increases to their proportions, ranging from +2.2 pps down to +0.2 pps.
The proportion for Pendle (+2.2 pps) saw the greatest yearly increase in the L-12 area, followed by Burnley (+1.4 pps), Hyndburn (+0.9 pps), Preston (+0.8 pps) and Rossendale (+0.6 pps). The proportions for five of the 12 areas rose by +0.5 or +0.4 pps (below the UK rise of +0.6 pps). The proportion for Ribble Valley increased by +0.3 pps, whilst the proportion for Lancaster rose by 0.2 pps over the year (also below the UK increase).
Lancashire-14 summary
The Claimant Count total for the Lancashire-14 area was 43,405 persons (4.5%) in September 2024. 24,030 were men and 19,3800 were women. The proportion for men (5.0%) was higher than that for women (4.0%). (UK men = 4.5%, women = 3.8%). Males accounted for 55.4% of the Claimant Count total (UK = 53.7%).
The total was down by 170 persons (-0.4%) on the previous month (UK = -0.2%); the proportion was unchanged (the UK proportion was also unchanged).
The total Claimant Count for Blackburn with Darwen increased by 90 persons (+1.4%) between August and September 2024 and the proportion (6.6%) rose by 0.1 percentage point. The total for Blackpool fell by 90 persons (-1.7%) and the proportion (6.2%) decreased by 0.1 pps.
Compared to September 2023, the L-14 total rose by 19.6% (+7,125 persons). (UK = +16.1%); the proportion was up by 0.7 percentage points (UK = +0.6 pps).
Blackburn with Darwen recorded the second largest yearly percentage rise in the Claimant Count in the L-14 area, increasing by 33.7%, but the largest rise in numbers (up 1,655 persons). The proportion rose by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, Blackpool saw the lowest percentage rise in the area over the year, increasing by 2.8%, and the smallest increase in numbers (up 140 persons). The proportion rose by 0.2 percentage points.
Age band analysis
Persons aged 16 to 24
In September 2024, at the UK level, the 16 to 24 years age band (16.4%) accounts for under a sixth of the Claimant Count total. The percentages for Lancashire-12 (17.3%) and Lancashire-14 area (17.5%) are slightly higher than the UK.
The UK proportion for the 16 to 24 years age band is 4.1%. The proportion for the Lancashire-12 area (4.0%) is marginally lower but the Lancashire-14 proportion (4.5%) is higher.
Four of the Lancashire-12 areas have Claimant Count proportions for the 16-24 year age band that are higher than the UK proportion (4.1%).
Burnley (6.7%) and Hyndburn (6.6%) had the greatest proportions in the L-12 area for the 16-24 years age band, followed by Pendle (5.9%) and Rossendale (5.8%). The proportions for Ribble Valley (2.2%), Lancaster (2.4%) and West Lancashire (2.5%) are the lowest in the area for this age band.
Blackpool (7.6%) has the highest proportion in the Lancashire-14 area for the 16-24 years age band. The proportion for Blackburn with Darwen (5.9%) is also higher than the UK proportion (4.1%) and joint fourth highest in the area (together with Pendle (5.9%).
Persons aged 25 to 49
In the UK, as at September 2024, the 25 to 49 years age band accounts for three-fifths of the Claimant Count total (60.2%). The percentage for the Lancashire-12 (60.6%) and Lancashire-14 area (60.3%) are slightly higher than the UK.
The UK proportion for the 25 to 49 years age band is 4.8%. The proportions for the Lancashire-12 area (5.1%) and the Lancashire-14 area (5.5%) are higher.
Five of the Lancashire-12 areas have Claimant Count proportions for this age band that are greater than the UK proportion (4.8%).
Pendle (8.6%) has the highest proportion in the Lancashire-12 area, followed by Burnley (8.1%), Hyndburn (7.1%), Preston (6.4%) and Rossendale (4.9%). The proportions for Pendle and Burnley are also the highest in the Lancashire-14 area. The proportions for Ribble Valley (2.4%), Chorley (3.1%) and South Ribble (3.2%) are the lowest in both the L-12 and L-14 areas for this age band.
The 25-49 age band proportions for Blackburn with Darwen (7.7%) and Blackpool (6.9%) and are also higher than the UK proportion (4.8%) and are third and fifth highest in the Lancashire-14 area.
Persons aged 50 and over
Persons aged 50 and over (50+) in the UK accounted for over a fifth (23.3%) of the Claimant Count total in September 2024. The percentages for the Lancashire-12 area (22.0%) and Lancashire-14 area (22.3%) are slightly lower than the UK.
The UK proportion for the 50+ age band is 3.1%. The proportions for the Lancashire-12 area (2.7%) and the Lancashire-14 area (3.0%) are slightly lower than the UK.
Four of the Lancashire-12 areas have Claimant Count proportions for the 50+ age band that are greater than the UK proportion (3.1%).
Pendle (5.3%) has the highest proportion in both the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas for this age band. Burnley's proportion (4.4%) is the second highest in the Lancashire-12 area, followed by Hyndburn (4.0%) and Preston (3.6%). The proportions for Ribble Valley (1.2%) and South Ribble (1.5%) are the lowest in the area for this age band.
Blackburn with Darwen (5.1%) has the second highest proportion in the Lancashire-14 area for the 50+ years age band. The proportion for Blackpool (4.0%) is the fourth joint highest in the area, together with Hyndburn (4.0%).
Persons aged 65 and over
The Claimant Count benefit is primarily for people of working age (people aged 16 to 64). However, owing to the way that Pension Credit rules are applied, some couples aged over the State Pension age may receive Universal Credit if the couple includes a younger partner under State Pension age.
From 15 May 2019 onwards, a change in Pension Credit eligibility rules means that both partners of a couple must be over State Pension age in order to claim Pension Credit. Prior to 15 May 2019, eligibility was based on the older partner’s age. Where the youngest partner is under State Pension age, these couples may be eligible for Universal Credit instead. This means more people over State Pension age may now receive Universal Credit / Claimant Count.
In the Lancashire-14 area, the number of persons aged 65 or over on the Claimant Count was 5 or fewer until December 2018. Numbers then rose, peaking at 800 during the Covid-19 pandemic in January of 2021 (1.3% of the January 2021 total) before falling to 505 in September 2023 (1.4% of the September 2023 total). Numbers have remained higher since this recent low and as at September 2024, persons aged 65 or over on the Claimant Count totalled 560 in the Lancashire-14 area (1.3% of the total). The UK 65+ total was 25,225 (1.4% of the total). Please refer to the of the Microsoft Power BI report for further details. Select the 'Trend from 2007' slide, then select the relevant age band from the 'Indicator' drop down menu. Select other variables as appropriate, areas and 'Number type'.
Blackpool (70 persons), Pendle (65 persons), Blackburn with Darwen (65 persons), Burnley (55 persons), Preston (50 persons) and Lancaster (45 persons) had the highest number of people aged 65 or over on the Claimant Count in the Lancashire-14 area in September 2024.
Page updated 23 December 2024