Population projections
Population projections produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) provide an understanding of the potential future size and age structure of the population. The figures are based on mid-year population estimates and assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration that are based on observed current and past trends.
The latest population projections cover the period from 2022 to 2047, providing a count of the total population, with breakdowns by age, gender and the components of change (sources of population growth and reduction).
Summary
In Lancashire-12, a 14.0% increase in the population is projected over the 25-year period. This results in a projected total population of 1.43 million by 2047. This increase in the population is above the projection for both the North West (13.1%) and England (12.7%).
The largest increases in the projected population in Lancashire-12 are expected in Ribble Valley (25.6%), Preston (23.7%), Fylde (21.7%), Wyre (21.2%) and Chorley (15.9%). Pendle (5.9%) and Hyndburn (6.0%) are projected to have the lowest increase in population in Lancashire-12.
In Lancashire-14, the projected percentage increase in population is expected to be smaller, at 12.0%. By 2047, the total population is projected to be 1.74 million in Lancashire-14. This increase is below the projection for both the North West and England.
Blackburn with Darwen (3.2%) and Blackpool (3.7%) are projected to have the lowest increases in population in Lancashire-14.
Projections by age group
The number of children aged 0 to 17 is expected to fall by 19,469 during the projection period, from 253,677 in 2022 to 234,208 in 2047 in Lancashire-12. As a proportion of the total population, this age group is expected to decline from 20.3% in 2022 (England = 20.9%) to 16.4% by 2047 (England = 17.1%).
The population aged 18 to 64 is projected to grow gradually each year, rising from 736,926 in 2022 to 830,084 by 2047 in Lancashire-12. As a proportion of the total population, this age group is expected to remain relatively similar across the projection period, decreasing from 58.8% in 2022 (England = 60.6%) to 58.0% by 2047 (England = 60.0%).
The older population aged 65 and over is expected to grow each year, with the number of those aged 80 and over projected to almost double between 2022 (68,980) and 2047 (132,018) in Lancashire-12. The proportion of the population aged 80 and over is projected to grow from 5.5% in 2022 (England = 5.0%) to 9.3% by 2047 (England = 8.3%) in Lancashire-12.
The old age dependency ratio (OADR - the number of people of state pension age per 1,000 working age people) is predicted to increase in every locality apart from Rossendale over the period of the projection. The largest OADR across the projection period are in Fylde and Wyre, which are both expected to increase from just over 450 in 2022 to over 500 in 2047 (England = 300).
Projections by components of change
A larger number of deaths than the number of births is projected in every period of the projection in Lancashire-14. Blackburn with Darwen and Preston are the only localities projected to have a larger number of births than deaths each year to 2047.
Overall, internal migration (population moving into the area from within England) is projected to account for the largest net change in the population in Lancashire-12 from 2025 onward. International migration is expected to be the primary source of net population growth in Preston, Lancaster, Pendle and Burnley each year from 2023 onwards.
Source: Sub-national population projections for local authorities in England (2022-based) from the Office for National Statistics via LG Inform.
The 2022-based sub-national population projections (SNPP) release has no projection that is defined as the principal projection by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Due to availability of more up-to-date migration data, the ONS recommends the use of the migration category variant edition to better reflect short-term population change and to fit with the long-term international migration data (for both national and sub-national projections).
Following this recommendation, the figures presented in this article are drawn from the migrant category variant. Other variants of the SNPP are available from the ONS website.
Limitations
Subnational population projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the possible effects of any future political or economic developments. Population projections use demographic assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration, based on observed current and past demographic behaviours and trends.
The assumptions used in projections are uncertain and so the projections become increasingly uncertain the further into the future they are carried forward. This is particularly the case for smaller geographical areas and detailed age and sex breakdowns. In addition, at the local level, population change is influenced by economic development and housing policies – these are factors that are not included in the projections.
Note that some breakdowns may not sum to the totals due to rounding.
Page updated 4 July 2025