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Issues for Lancashire

In 2003, the total CO 2 emissions in Lancashire were 12.7 million tonnes. This equates to one fifth of the North West total, and 2.5% of the UK total.

75% of greenhouse gases in the North West region are emitted in roughly equal amounts from industrial discharges, households and transport, with agricultural sources contributing to around 11% of greenhouse gases.

The consequences of global warming for the North West includes a warmer and wetter climate with an increase in the risk of storms, flooding and sea level rises.

The average maximum temperature in the region could increase by as much as 4- 5° C with sustained high emissions of greenhouse gases over the next 80 years, while even under a low emissions scenario; temperatures are set to increase by between 1 and 3 oC.

In addition to this, weather patterns could become more extreme, for example, the high temperatures recorded occasionally today could become the norm by 2080.

Winter rainfall could increase by up to 30% in the region over the next century, if high levels of greenhouse gas emissions continue.

In contrast to this, continued high emissions of greenhouse gases could result in summer rainfall decreasing by between 30-50% (compared with current patterns) across the whole of the region.

Other effects of climate change in the region could include:

• A sea level rise of up to 67cm.
• 95,000 people live along the 430km coastline of the North West. Models for sea level rise indicate that large parts of this coastline including the Wyre, West Lancashire and Fylde would become flooded. There is therefore a serious threat to the livelihood of these people.
• Low lying agricultural land in the western part of the county is used for the production of high-value crops. Any future sea level rise associated with climate change could have devastating effects on this agricultural economy.
• Areas such as the Forest of Bowland comprise of species which are highly specialised to the present cold climate. These species will be under theat from any changes in climate.
• Large parts of Lancashire have been identified as key areas for mosquito habitation should temperatures increase. This could have profound implications on health, as mosquitoes act as vectors for an array of diseases. A major identified risk comes from West Nile Virus, which could spread throughout the North West should temperatures rise.